Bitcoin won the ten-year price race. But an investor does not live inside a ten-year chart. A €100,000 BTC-EUR position opened at the end of 2021 was worth about €37,600 after modeled trading fees one year later. In our Budapest property scenario, the same starting capital finished near €100,900 after rent, vacancy, operating costs, purchase and sale costs, and modeled tax.
The property did not deliver a spectacular gain. It did something financially different. It preserved capital during a severe risk-asset drawdown.
This does not prove that property always beats Bitcoin. It shows why price growth alone cannot answer the investment question.
What happened during the 2022 stress year?
The comparison uses the same €100,000 starting capital and the same one-year window. Bitcoin is unlevered and unlent. The Budapest property is an all-cash purchase.
Die Coinbase BTC-EUR close fell from €40,659.79 on 31 December 2021 to €15,428.96 on 31 December 2022. After an assumed 0.5% fee on entry and exit, €100,000 became about €37,569. That is a loss of 62.43%.
The property model starts with a €95,238 purchase and €4,762 of acquisition costs. It uses the KSH 2021 Q4 Budapest condominium price of HUF 764,000 per square metre. That implies an apartment of about 46 square metres.
For rent, we use the KSH's 2022 annual average asking rent and advertised floor area. We then allow for one vacant month, 20% operating costs and 15% rental-income tax. The result is about €3,144 of modeled net rent.
Die MNB Budapest house-price index rose 16.1% in forints between 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q4. The forint weakened during the year. Using the ECB reference rates, the modeled property value rose by about 6.9% in euros.
If the investor kept the property, indexed value plus net rent reached about €104,977. If the investor sold at the index-linked value, 3% sale costs and modeled capital-gains tax reduced final wealth to about €100,920.
Four numbers that should not be confused
- Drawdown is a fall from an earlier peak. It can recover if the investor holds.
- Realised loss is locked in when the investor sells.
- Holding cash flow is money produced while the asset is owned. An unlent Bitcoin holding produced none in this model. The apartment produced rent.
- Total investor outcome combines the value change, cash flow, costs and tax included in the scenario.
This distinction matters. A price chart answers what happened to the quoted asset value. It does not always answer what happened to the investor's money.
Illiquidity can protect you and punish you
Bitcoin can be sold in seconds. That is useful when cash is needed. It also means a large loss can be realised with one click during a panic.
Property moves more slowly. An apartment is not repriced every minute. But the owner cannot assume an instant sale at the city index level. The MNB reported that Hungarian housing transactions were 36% lower year on year in 2022 Q4, even though the Budapest index was still 16.1% higher than a year earlier.
To make that risk visible, we added an urgent-sale scenario. A 10% discount to the index-linked value, plus 3% sale costs, leaves about €92,044 after modeled net rent. That is a loss of 7.96%.
The discount is hypothetical. It is not a measured Budapest average. Its purpose is to show that property liquidity has a price when the owner cannot wait.
Property has three return engines, not one
Miete can pay the investor while the asset is held. But gross rent is not net income. Vacancy, repairs, insurance, management, building charges and tax all reduce it. Our gross-versus-net rental yield analysis explains the difference.
Active improvement can raise rent or resale value. A better layout, energy upgrade or well-managed renovation can help. It creates value only when the extra income or sale price exceeds the work, financing, vacancy and tax costs.
Finanzierung can increase exposure. It can also make a short holding period much more dangerous. In our separate 60% loan-to-value illustration, the held equity still ended slightly higher after 2022. A normal modeled sale ended below the starting equity because interest and transaction costs absorbed the gain. A 10% urgent-sale discount cut the remaining equity much more sharply. Leverage changes the investor's exposure. It does not improve the property itself.
For a fuller comparison, see our cash-versus-mortgage analysis.
Bitcoin still owns the ten-year price result
The daily Coinbase BTC-EUR close rose from €396.87 on 31 December 2015 to €74,473.24 on 31 December 2025. That is about 18,665%.
Budapest produced the strongest official 2015 to 2025 city property-price rise that we verified across the 11 markets covered by Place for Capital. It rose about 323% in forints and roughly 230% after an indicative euro conversion.
That historical price victory is real. It answers a different question from the 2022 stress test. It excludes rent, property costs, Bitcoin trading fees, tax and financing. The city series also differ in coverage and method. Budapest is the strongest verified result within our defined 11-market review, not a claim about every European city.
What the PFC Property Investor Index adds today
The historical stress test uses 2022 rental and price data. It does not back-cast today's yield.
In the current PFC Immobilieninvestor-Index, Budapest ranks fifth for the Current Investment Case and third for 5-Year Investment Potential. Its vacancy-adjusted gross rental yield is 4.30%. Mandatory entry costs are 4.76% in the standard benchmark.
These are current screening measures. The yield is before operating costs, tax and finance. The entry-cost benchmark is not a historical 2021 cost estimate. Their purpose is to help investors compare today's starting points across selected European cities.
So, is property better than Bitcoin?
Not for every investor and not in every year.
Bitcoin offers liquidity, portability and divisibility. It can also expose the investor to extreme volatility, custody risk and the temptation to sell during a sharp fall.
Property can produce cash flow, provide direct use and allow controlled improvement. During the 2022 stress year, our modeled Budapest property preserved far more of the original capital than Bitcoin. But property is expensive to enter and exit. A forced sale can erase much of its advantage. Debt can magnify the damage.
The useful comparison is not property price growth versus Bitcoin price growth. It is total investor outcome versus total investor outcome. For property, that means purchase price, rent, vacancy, operating costs, tax, financing, sale costs and the time available to hold.
Explore the PFC Immobilieninvestor-Index und sein Methodik for comparable European property-market benchmarks.
This article provides general research, not personal financial, tax, legal or investment advice. The calculations are scenarios based on the stated data and assumptions. Historical performance does not predict future returns.